Wednesday, December 30, 2020

My Fantasy NASCAR Bubble

Call it ego, call it what you will, but I do not listen to other daily fantasy NASCAR experts.

Originally, this exclusion was part ego and part laziness. There might still be a hint of ego behind my process, but anyone that has used my DFS sheets, podcasts, or articles will know that lack of effort is not synonymous with my work. Even when I was lazy five years ago, my lazy is not most people’s lazy. Let’s stop this here because this is not a post about a resentful underappreciated yeoman. It’s about why I ignore everyone.

Monday, December 28, 2020

An Example of the DFS NASCAR Analysis to come...

Now that everything is free, much of my analysis will go here. Statistical analysis and DFS thoughts that were typically inside the spreadsheet for the eyes of my generous patrons will be posted at race4theprize.com.

There’s not much to write in terms of stats and pre/post race thoughts at this time in December, but let me give you an example.

Saturday, December 26, 2020

Fantasy NASCAR Context over Stats

I am trolling you.This is never gospel. Never was.
If you’ve used the spreadsheet, then you’ve seen inside my mind. You know what I get right and what I get wrong. Maybe you have developed an algorithm that dismisses my bad advice, and pulls only from objective reality. Probably, you haven’t.
One of the data points that I weigh heavily is hardly traditional data - it’s race events. While they’re objective events, I subjectively extrapolate the true impact of the events on DFS NASCAR outcomes.

Friday, December 25, 2020

Pros and Cons of No NASCAR Practice in 2021 (first edition)

Pros and Cons of No NASCAR Practice in 2021 (first edition)


Pros

  • DFS NASCAR players don’t need a seasonal subscription with less data existing this year
  • Less data to analyze, more free time
  • You do not have two watch 5-6 practice sessions each week
  • We know Qualifying positions well in advance of the race
  • Fantasy NASCAR players no longer have to rush to build between qualifying and start time
  • There is less noise (driver quotes, meaningless practice runs, etc.)
  • You can still donate to mensches, yes you, and you know who the mensch is
  • Less Mike Joy
  • It’s easier to play fantasy NASCAR - open the spreadsheet and roll on the day of the race
  • No DVR management needed
  • Mid week content has more value because nothing changes from Monday to Sunday without practice and qualifying
  • YouTube DFS NASCAR shows are no longer Saturday only events
  • Mike Joy only gets one opportunity to repeat the same tired factoids (Delaware water table, New England racing trivia, hot rod music at Fontana
  • There will not be 32 Daytona 500 practices
  • There is an edge for DFS players that rewatch races with the lap data and attentively take notes 
  • More free time to work on projects around the house, depending on your wife, this might be a con

Cons

  • I cannot sell content (I will accept donations for making your DFS process easier, but I cannot pretend that I am providing special insight when there is very little data available)
  • I’ll be begging more
  • DFS players will focus on the few data points available and end up in the similar place
  • There is no longer an edge for players that attentively watch Cup practice weekly
  • Friday afternoons and Saturday mornings can be boring if you have nothing else to do
  • Less driver interviews for DFS insight
  • Less Dale Jr commentary
  • The NASCAR experience doesn’t feel full
  • The technical connection to NASCAR that is absent in other sports is now gone, and the experience is distant
  • Practice allowed DFS players to watch NASCAR without action, it was the last pure form of viewing for DFS players, now it’s always with money on the line
  • There will still be Daytona practices somehow

Mistakes that I will make in 2021 DFS NASCAR

Previewing my 2021 Fantasy NASCAR mistakes:

I will roster John Hunter Nemechek too much. The only time that I will survive this mistake is when Kyle Busch is in the #51 truck.

Austin Cindric will likely burn me a lot this season. Was he really that good in 2020?

The Harrison
Burton hype train will likely skew my ownership even though he has a new crew chief. It's a good one, Jason Ratcliff, but they have to gel.

If Allmendinger isn't starting 30th, what do I do? What ever the wrong answer is, that's what I'll do.

I wont trust Hemric and he'll win multiple races early. Same for Herbst.

I'll like Jeb Burton, but he'll always be priced too high.

Thursday, December 24, 2020

DFS NASCAR Thoughts

The fantasy NASCAR spreadsheet is free. Keep your eyes on posts or just click the spreadsheet link in the menu.

I am excited for the Xfinity Series and the Truck Series, and so are you. At first sniff, these garbage series do not smell as rancid as 2020. Covid or no Covid, everyone knew that 2020 was going to be the worst season in the history of the Xfinity Series back in February. This year, the Xfinity series is worse, but now, we're nose blind. 

The transition from Bell/Custer/Reddick to the 2020 crop of drivers was jarring. Imagine growing up on Filet Mignon and then switching to chuck steak. NASCAR can serve us undercooked 80/20 ground beef and we won't know the difference.

The good news is that although we will be digging through a dumpster for our next meal, it's no longer hard to identify the edible products. Kody Vanderwal is spoiled milk, stay away. Justin Allgaier is a fancy loaf of artisan bread half covered in mold, be careful. Austin Cindric is a package of black licorice Twizzlers. It sat on the shelf for a year and had to be thrown out because of its use by date. It's not good by any measure, but it gets the job done, if you're hungry.