Wednesday, December 30, 2020

notes - Trucks - Daytona Road Course - 2020

 Daytona Road Course - DFS NASCAR NOTES

  • Zane Smith on pole, misses turn one BY A MILE

  • Ben Rhodes banging on Christian Eckes for 2nd on lap one 

  • Moffitt’s lead shrinks, then the stretches it back out

  • Creed to 3rd

  • Derek Kraus misses chicane - into the grass

  • Canadian  -- “Lessard has some road racing experience”

  • Creed says he’s getting a little bit of wheel hop, the team gives him some in car adjustments that he can make

My Fantasy NASCAR Bubble

Call it ego, call it what you will, but I do not listen to other daily fantasy NASCAR experts.

Originally, this exclusion was part ego and part laziness. There might still be a hint of ego behind my process, but anyone that has used my DFS sheets, podcasts, or articles will know that lack of effort is not synonymous with my work. Even when I was lazy five years ago, my lazy is not most people’s lazy. Let’s stop this here because this is not a post about a resentful underappreciated yeoman. It’s about why I ignore everyone.

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

notes - CUP - Daytona Road Course - 2020

notes - CUP - Daytona Road Course - 2020 (drc)

  • Race 23

  • Best lap time - 117.7 seconds or 1 minutes 57 seconds

  • Harvick and Hamlin agreement for turn 1 - take it easy ► allows Hamlin to have the preferred groove in the infield

  • No mistakes on lap 1 = respect for each other, also taking it easy

    • Some laps are so slow on lap 1, that I excluded it in data averages

  • Harvick does not look comfortable

  • Lap 3 - Kyle Busch battling for lead with Hamlin...takes lead… then loses lead

Monday, December 28, 2020

An Example of the DFS NASCAR Analysis to come...

Now that everything is free, much of my analysis will go here. Statistical analysis and DFS thoughts that were typically inside the spreadsheet for the eyes of my generous patrons will be posted at race4theprize.com.

There’s not much to write in terms of stats and pre/post race thoughts at this time in December, but let me give you an example.

Sunday, December 27, 2020

Notes - Xfinity DFS - Homestead 2 - 2020

Notes - Xfinity DFS - Homestead 2 - 2020 

RAW NOTES Fantasy NASCAR Notes


driver


Noah Gragson

best car period. had race won. cindric spins with 2 laps left

A.J. Allmendinger

lucky dog for cindric wreck, causes next wreck by dumping herbst

Austin Cindric

good on short run, cant run with gragson long, hits wall as gragson passes, tire down, pits early

Chase Briscoe

good, but couldn't catch gragson, cindric caution = briscoe steals lead on pit road. the only way he can win

Brandon Jones

almost won at the end with the cautions, decent day, but never a contender

Ross Chastain

lap down and running in 10th, takes wave around with cindric caution, then AJ wrecks herbst, so chastain gets fresh tires vs. old tires

Harrison Burton

gets last lucky dog, had a tire go down and pitted with 20 laps left

Ryan Sieg

went 2 laps down at one point, can't find any info as to why

Josh Williams


Justin Allgaier

running in top 5, hit the wall 300 times, finally blew a tire, wnet back out, got up to 12th, blew another tire, sped on pit road

Colin Garrett


Tommy Joe Martins


Justin Haley

same exact day as Chastain

Anthony Alfredo

tire issue late, had to pit

Joe Graf, Jr.


Riley Herbst

stayed on the lead lap, looked good as expected (he got a practice race), AJ dumped, dirty, no excuse, the broadcasters gave him a break because it's AJ, but any other driver would have received full blame

Jesse Little


Chad Finchum

ran well as expected, did pretty well the day before, for not having power steering

Myatt Snider


Jeffrey Earnhardt


Colby Howard


Alex Labbe


Matt Mills


Vinnie Miller


Michael Annett

AJ dumps Herbst, takes him out

Timmy Hill


Bayley Currey


Kody Vanderwal


Caesar Bacarella


Kyle Weatherman


Stephen Leicht


Stefan Parsons


B.J. McLeod


Jeremy Clements


Daniel Hemric

AJ dumps Herbst, takes him out

Carson Ware


Brandon Brown

mechanical issue


Notes - Xfinity - Homestead 1 - 2020

Notes - Xfinity DFS - Homestead 1 - 2020 

RAW NOTES Fantasy NASCAR Notes


driver


Noah Gragson

awesome long run truck... had a 15 second lead before the caution...looked like Reddick up top

Austin Cindric

great car, could have led more laps, but ross chastain was doing his normal blocking routine

Chase Briscoe

started 6 laps down, VERY FAST, not sure if he could pass leaders on equal tires, but he has one of the best cars, the fast laps are the product of him being on different tire strategies, he also had clean because he was running right in front of the leaders

Anthony Alfredo

RCR car was good for reddick at homestead last year

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

running 2nd before the caution, not good on restarts, Taylor Moyer @taylorcmoyer · 2h Thank you to everyone involved. It was great to see @DaleJr get back out there and rip the #8 @JRMotorsports car. Needed it to go long at the end, we had a great long run car. Lacked fire off speed

Michael Annett

JR motorsports had fast cars

Harrison Burton

might have passed Jr before the caution, got better through out the race, and was in the right spot when gragson, cindric and burton went 3 wide

Joe Graf, Jr.


Jeremy Clements


Colby Howard

getting better each week

Ross Chastain

too agressive early....faded to 5th...same old story... the greatest racer ever when it comes to meaningless laps to start a race, but he isn't clutch, he fades...then gets a penalty on the last green flag

Myatt Snider

pretty good for the #93... this is probably the cieling for this car π˜”π˜Ίπ˜’π˜΅π˜΅ 𝘚𝘯π˜ͺπ˜₯𝘦𝘳 @MyattSnider Phew. That was ord. Thought we were the lucky dog but we weren't. We took tires and crossed the line 7th on the track, but 15th in the running order. That's why I didn't go for any spots. No point.

Colin Garrett

exactly what the Sam Hunt 26 should do if it doesnt have a problem

J.J. Yeley

the 07 car is still good, it just depends on the driver

Brandon Jones

speeding penalty on the last pit stop

Riley Herbst

basically JGR finally got to practice - Riley Herbst @rileyherbst · 1h Top 10, first time here at @HomesteadMiami . Learned a bunch ready for tomorrow! Fisted hand Building on it!

Alex Labbe


Justin Haley

running around 7th, greenflag penalty for uncontrolled tire killed him....this team just cant put full races together

Stefan Parsons

not bad for the BJM 99

Timmy Hill

this is about right, we expected way too much, this is the appropriate finish for a team that used to start and park

Matt Mills

about where he always finished last year

Jesse Little

good day for the #4 JD car, but not a good fantasy day

Josh Williams


Bayley Currey

Bayley Currey @BayleyCurrey · 2m Good day today @HomesteadMiami the Mutt and Jeff’s Porkskins machine was solid. We unfortunately had a brake issue early in the race that never quite got sorted out, but the @MhrRacing guys never gave up. Ready to line em up and do it again tomorrow! #havehelmetwilltravel

Brandon Brown


Jeffrey Earnhardt


Tommy Joe Martins

Tommy Joe Martins @TommyJoeMartins · 1h P31. Electrical issue before we even took the green flag. Just rode around all day 18 laps down. At least the car is still in one piece for tomorrow. Top15 lap times at the end on equal tires. If it wasn’t for bad luck, we’d have no luck at all. We’ll keep fighting. Thanks y’all.

B.J. McLeod


Caesar Bacarella


Ryan Sieg


Kyle Weatherman


Stephen Leicht


Chad Finchum

@ChadFinchum lost power steering quite a while ago, now getting a push to pit road, crew will go under hood and check switches on the dash to see what may have happened to cause the loss of power

Kody Vanderwal


Vinnie Miller

wreck

Justin Allgaier

mechanical issues, but also hit the wall VERY HARD - probably caused issue

Brett Moffitt

wreck


DFS NOTES - Trucks - Homestead 2020

Fantasy NASCAR Trucks notes - Homestead 2020 PDF

DFS NASCAR NOTES


Notes - Xfinity - Daytona Road Course - DFS NASCAR - 2020

  DRC - Fantasy NASCAR Xfinity - 2020

  • No practice

  • Wet track (some took rain tires)

  • Cindric and Briscoe on front row - both overdrive turn 1 ► Gragson to the lead

  • Cindric takes the lead on the exit of 6 (back onto the oval)

  • Briscoe misses chicane - stop on track - drops to 14th

  • Sieg huge lock up on turn 1 chicane - pits for tires = drops to 26th

  • Lap 2 - Haley an Chastain miss chicane at the same time

  • Briscoe pits and puts the slicks back on

  • Haley misses turn 1 on lap 4 (guy once won a road course in a truck series)

  • Gragson makes a stop and go

  • AJ - the setup is really far off

  • Field spread out...8 laps = 10th place car is 30 seconds back!!!

  • Lap 9… lap turning

Saturday, December 26, 2020

Fantasy NASCAR Context over Stats

I am trolling you.This is never gospel. Never was.
If you’ve used the spreadsheet, then you’ve seen inside my mind. You know what I get right and what I get wrong. Maybe you have developed an algorithm that dismisses my bad advice, and pulls only from objective reality. Probably, you haven’t.
One of the data points that I weigh heavily is hardly traditional data - it’s race events. While they’re objective events, I subjectively extrapolate the true impact of the events on DFS NASCAR outcomes.

Friday, December 25, 2020

Pros and Cons of No NASCAR Practice in 2021 (first edition)

Pros and Cons of No NASCAR Practice in 2021 (first edition)


Pros

  • DFS NASCAR players don’t need a seasonal subscription with less data existing this year
  • Less data to analyze, more free time
  • You do not have two watch 5-6 practice sessions each week
  • We know Qualifying positions well in advance of the race
  • Fantasy NASCAR players no longer have to rush to build between qualifying and start time
  • There is less noise (driver quotes, meaningless practice runs, etc.)
  • You can still donate to mensches, yes you, and you know who the mensch is
  • Less Mike Joy
  • It’s easier to play fantasy NASCAR - open the spreadsheet and roll on the day of the race
  • No DVR management needed
  • Mid week content has more value because nothing changes from Monday to Sunday without practice and qualifying
  • YouTube DFS NASCAR shows are no longer Saturday only events
  • Mike Joy only gets one opportunity to repeat the same tired factoids (Delaware water table, New England racing trivia, hot rod music at Fontana
  • There will not be 32 Daytona 500 practices
  • There is an edge for DFS players that rewatch races with the lap data and attentively take notes 
  • More free time to work on projects around the house, depending on your wife, this might be a con

Cons

  • I cannot sell content (I will accept donations for making your DFS process easier, but I cannot pretend that I am providing special insight when there is very little data available)
  • I’ll be begging more
  • DFS players will focus on the few data points available and end up in the similar place
  • There is no longer an edge for players that attentively watch Cup practice weekly
  • Friday afternoons and Saturday mornings can be boring if you have nothing else to do
  • Less driver interviews for DFS insight
  • Less Dale Jr commentary
  • The NASCAR experience doesn’t feel full
  • The technical connection to NASCAR that is absent in other sports is now gone, and the experience is distant
  • Practice allowed DFS players to watch NASCAR without action, it was the last pure form of viewing for DFS players, now it’s always with money on the line
  • There will still be Daytona practices somehow