Zane Smith on pole, misses turn one BY A MILE
Ben Rhodes banging on Christian Eckes for 2nd on lap one
Moffitt’s lead shrinks, then the stretches it back out
Creed to 3rd
Derek Kraus misses chicane - into the grass
Canadian -- “Lessard has some road racing experience”
Creed says he’s getting a little bit of wheel hop, the team gives him some in car adjustments that he can make
Wednesday, December 30, 2020
notes - Trucks - Daytona Road Course - 2020
My Fantasy NASCAR Bubble
Originally, this exclusion was part ego and part laziness. There might still be a hint of ego behind my process, but anyone that has used my DFS sheets, podcasts, or articles will know that lack of effort is not synonymous with my work. Even when I was lazy five years ago, my lazy is not most people’s lazy. Let’s stop this here because this is not a post about a resentful underappreciated yeoman. It’s about why I ignore everyone.
Tuesday, December 29, 2020
notes - CUP - Daytona Road Course - 2020
notes - CUP - Daytona Road Course - 2020 (drc)
Race 23
Best lap time - 117.7 seconds or 1 minutes 57 seconds
Harvick and Hamlin agreement for turn 1 - take it easy ► allows Hamlin to have the preferred groove in the infield
No mistakes on lap 1 = respect for each other, also taking it easy
Some laps are so slow on lap 1, that I excluded it in data averages
Harvick does not look comfortable
Lap 3 - Kyle Busch battling for lead with Hamlin...takes lead… then loses lead
Monday, December 28, 2020
An Example of the DFS NASCAR Analysis to come...
There’s not much to write in terms of stats and pre/post race thoughts at this time in December, but let me give you an example.
Sunday, December 27, 2020
Notes - Xfinity DFS - Homestead 2 - 2020
Notes - Xfinity DFS - Homestead 2 - 2020
RAW NOTES Fantasy NASCAR Notes
driver | |
Noah Gragson | best car period. had race won. cindric spins with 2 laps left |
A.J. Allmendinger | lucky dog for cindric wreck, causes next wreck by dumping herbst |
Austin Cindric | good on short run, cant run with gragson long, hits wall as gragson passes, tire down, pits early |
Chase Briscoe | good, but couldn't catch gragson, cindric caution = briscoe steals lead on pit road. the only way he can win |
Brandon Jones | almost won at the end with the cautions, decent day, but never a contender |
Ross Chastain | lap down and running in 10th, takes wave around with cindric caution, then AJ wrecks herbst, so chastain gets fresh tires vs. old tires |
Harrison Burton | gets last lucky dog, had a tire go down and pitted with 20 laps left |
Ryan Sieg | went 2 laps down at one point, can't find any info as to why |
Josh Williams | |
Justin Allgaier | running in top 5, hit the wall 300 times, finally blew a tire, wnet back out, got up to 12th, blew another tire, sped on pit road |
Colin Garrett | |
Tommy Joe Martins | |
Justin Haley | same exact day as Chastain |
Anthony Alfredo | tire issue late, had to pit |
Joe Graf, Jr. | |
Riley Herbst | stayed on the lead lap, looked good as expected (he got a practice race), AJ dumped, dirty, no excuse, the broadcasters gave him a break because it's AJ, but any other driver would have received full blame |
Jesse Little | |
Chad Finchum | ran well as expected, did pretty well the day before, for not having power steering |
Myatt Snider | |
Jeffrey Earnhardt | |
Colby Howard | |
Alex Labbe | |
Matt Mills | |
Vinnie Miller | |
Michael Annett | AJ dumps Herbst, takes him out |
Timmy Hill | |
Bayley Currey | |
Kody Vanderwal | |
Caesar Bacarella | |
Kyle Weatherman | |
Stephen Leicht | |
Stefan Parsons | |
B.J. McLeod | |
Jeremy Clements | |
Daniel Hemric | AJ dumps Herbst, takes him out |
Carson Ware | |
Brandon Brown | mechanical issue |
Notes - Xfinity - Homestead 1 - 2020
Notes - Xfinity DFS - Homestead 1 - 2020
RAW NOTES Fantasy NASCAR Notes
driver | |
Noah Gragson | awesome long run truck... had a 15 second lead before the caution...looked like Reddick up top |
Austin Cindric | great car, could have led more laps, but ross chastain was doing his normal blocking routine |
Chase Briscoe | started 6 laps down, VERY FAST, not sure if he could pass leaders on equal tires, but he has one of the best cars, the fast laps are the product of him being on different tire strategies, he also had clean because he was running right in front of the leaders |
Anthony Alfredo | RCR car was good for reddick at homestead last year |
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | running 2nd before the caution, not good on restarts, Taylor Moyer @taylorcmoyer · 2h Thank you to everyone involved. It was great to see @DaleJr get back out there and rip the #8 @JRMotorsports car. Needed it to go long at the end, we had a great long run car. Lacked fire off speed |
Michael Annett | JR motorsports had fast cars |
Harrison Burton | might have passed Jr before the caution, got better through out the race, and was in the right spot when gragson, cindric and burton went 3 wide |
Joe Graf, Jr. | |
Jeremy Clements | |
Colby Howard | getting better each week |
Ross Chastain | too agressive early....faded to 5th...same old story... the greatest racer ever when it comes to meaningless laps to start a race, but he isn't clutch, he fades...then gets a penalty on the last green flag |
Myatt Snider | pretty good for the #93... this is probably the cieling for this car 𝘔𝘺𝘢𝘵𝘵 𝘚𝘯𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳 @MyattSnider Phew. That was ord. Thought we were the lucky dog but we weren't. We took tires and crossed the line 7th on the track, but 15th in the running order. That's why I didn't go for any spots. No point. |
Colin Garrett | exactly what the Sam Hunt 26 should do if it doesnt have a problem |
J.J. Yeley | the 07 car is still good, it just depends on the driver |
Brandon Jones | speeding penalty on the last pit stop |
Riley Herbst | basically JGR finally got to practice - Riley Herbst @rileyherbst · 1h Top 10, first time here at @HomesteadMiami . Learned a bunch ready for tomorrow! Fisted hand Building on it! |
Alex Labbe | |
Justin Haley | running around 7th, greenflag penalty for uncontrolled tire killed him....this team just cant put full races together |
Stefan Parsons | not bad for the BJM 99 |
Timmy Hill | this is about right, we expected way too much, this is the appropriate finish for a team that used to start and park |
Matt Mills | about where he always finished last year |
Jesse Little | good day for the #4 JD car, but not a good fantasy day |
Josh Williams | |
Bayley Currey | Bayley Currey @BayleyCurrey · 2m Good day today @HomesteadMiami the Mutt and Jeff’s Porkskins machine was solid. We unfortunately had a brake issue early in the race that never quite got sorted out, but the @MhrRacing guys never gave up. Ready to line em up and do it again tomorrow! #havehelmetwilltravel |
Brandon Brown | |
Jeffrey Earnhardt | |
Tommy Joe Martins | Tommy Joe Martins @TommyJoeMartins · 1h P31. Electrical issue before we even took the green flag. Just rode around all day 18 laps down. At least the car is still in one piece for tomorrow. Top15 lap times at the end on equal tires. If it wasn’t for bad luck, we’d have no luck at all. We’ll keep fighting. Thanks y’all. |
B.J. McLeod | |
Caesar Bacarella | |
Ryan Sieg | |
Kyle Weatherman | |
Stephen Leicht | |
Chad Finchum | @ChadFinchum lost power steering quite a while ago, now getting a push to pit road, crew will go under hood and check switches on the dash to see what may have happened to cause the loss of power |
Kody Vanderwal | |
Vinnie Miller | wreck |
Justin Allgaier | mechanical issues, but also hit the wall VERY HARD - probably caused issue |
Brett Moffitt | wreck |
Notes - Xfinity - Daytona Road Course - DFS NASCAR - 2020
DRC - Fantasy NASCAR Xfinity - 2020
No practice
Wet track (some took rain tires)
Cindric and Briscoe on front row - both overdrive turn 1 ► Gragson to the lead
- Cindric takes the lead on the exit of 6 (back onto the oval)
Briscoe misses chicane - stop on track - drops to 14th
Sieg huge lock up on turn 1 chicane - pits for tires = drops to 26th
Lap 2 - Haley an Chastain miss chicane at the same time
Briscoe pits and puts the slicks back on
Haley misses turn 1 on lap 4 (guy once won a road course in a truck series)
Gragson makes a stop and go
AJ - the setup is really far off
Field spread out...8 laps = 10th place car is 30 seconds back!!!
Lap 9… lap turning
Saturday, December 26, 2020
Fantasy NASCAR Context over Stats

If you’ve used the spreadsheet, then you’ve seen inside my mind. You know what I get right and what I get wrong. Maybe you have developed an algorithm that dismisses my bad advice, and pulls only from objective reality. Probably, you haven’t.
One of the data points that I weigh heavily is hardly traditional data - it’s race events. While they’re objective events, I subjectively extrapolate the true impact of the events on DFS NASCAR outcomes.
Friday, December 25, 2020
Pros and Cons of No NASCAR Practice in 2021 (first edition)
Pros and Cons of No NASCAR Practice in 2021 (first edition)
Pros
- DFS NASCAR players don’t need a seasonal subscription with less data existing this year
- Less data to analyze, more free time
- You do not have two watch 5-6 practice sessions each week
- We know Qualifying positions well in advance of the race
- Fantasy NASCAR players no longer have to rush to build between qualifying and start time
- There is less noise (driver quotes, meaningless practice runs, etc.)
- You can still donate to mensches, yes you, and you know who the mensch is
- Less Mike Joy
- It’s easier to play fantasy NASCAR - open the spreadsheet and roll on the day of the race
- No DVR management needed
- Mid week content has more value because nothing changes from Monday to Sunday without practice and qualifying
- YouTube DFS NASCAR shows are no longer Saturday only events
- Mike Joy only gets one opportunity to repeat the same tired factoids (Delaware water table, New England racing trivia, hot rod music at Fontana
- There will not be 32 Daytona 500 practices
- There is an edge for DFS players that rewatch races with the lap data and attentively take notes
- More free time to work on projects around the house, depending on your wife, this might be a con
Cons
- I cannot sell content (I will accept donations for making your DFS process easier, but I cannot pretend that I am providing special insight when there is very little data available)
- I’ll be begging more
- DFS players will focus on the few data points available and end up in the similar place
- There is no longer an edge for players that attentively watch Cup practice weekly
- Friday afternoons and Saturday mornings can be boring if you have nothing else to do
- Less driver interviews for DFS insight
- Less Dale Jr commentary
- The NASCAR experience doesn’t feel full
- The technical connection to NASCAR that is absent in other sports is now gone, and the experience is distant
- Practice allowed DFS players to watch NASCAR without action, it was the last pure form of viewing for DFS players, now it’s always with money on the line
- There will still be Daytona practices somehow