notes - Trucks - Daytona Road Course - 2020

 Daytona Road Course - DFS NASCAR NOTES

• Zane Smith on pole, misses turn one BY A MILE

• Ben Rhodes banging on Christian Eckes for 2nd on lap one 

• Moffitt’s lead shrinks, then the stretches it back out

• Creed to 3rd

• Derek Kraus misses chicane - into the grass

• Canadian  -- “Lessard has some road racing experience”

• Creed says he’s getting a little bit of wheel hop, the team gives him some in car adjustments that he can make

My Fantasy NASCAR Bubble

Call it ego, call it what you will, but I do not listen to other daily fantasy NASCAR experts.

Originally, this exclusion was part ego and part laziness. There might still be a hint of ego behind my process, but anyone that has used my DFS sheets, podcasts, or articles will know that lack of effort is not synonymous with my work. Even when I was lazy five years ago, my lazy is not most people’s lazy. Let’s stop this here because this is not a post about a resentful underappreciated yeoman. It’s about why I ignore everyone.

notes - CUP - Daytona Road Course - 2020

notes - CUP - Daytona Road Course - 2020 (drc)

• Race 23

• Best lap time - 117.7 seconds or 1 minutes 57 seconds

• Harvick and Hamlin agreement for turn 1 - take it easy ► allows Hamlin to have the preferred groove in the infield

• No mistakes on lap 1 = respect for each other, also taking it easy

• Some laps are so slow on lap 1, that I excluded it in data averages

• Harvick does not look comfortable

• Lap 3 - Kyle Busch battling for lead with Hamlin...takes lead… then loses lead

An Example of the DFS NASCAR Analysis to come...

Now that everything is free, much of my analysis will go here. Statistical analysis and DFS thoughts that were typically inside the spreadsheet for the eyes of my generous patrons will be posted at race4theprize.com.

There’s not much to write in terms of stats and pre/post race thoughts at this time in December, but let me give you an example.

Notes - Xfinity DFS - Homestead 2 - 2020

Notes - Xfinity DFS - Homestead 2 - 2020 

RAW NOTES Fantasy NASCAR Notes

driver
Noah Gragson	best car period. had race won. cindric spins with 2 laps left
A.J. Allmendinger	lucky dog for cindric wreck, causes next wreck by dumping herbst
Austin Cindric	good on short run, cant run with gragson long, hits wall as gragson passes, tire down, pits early
Chase Briscoe	good, but couldn't catch gragson, cindric caution = briscoe steals lead on pit road. the only way he can win
Brandon Jones	almost won at the end with the cautions, decent day, but never a contender
Ross Chastain	lap down and running in 10th, takes wave around with cindric caution, then AJ wrecks herbst, so chastain gets fresh tires vs. old tires
Harrison Burton	gets last lucky dog, had a tire go down and pitted with 20 laps left
Ryan Sieg	went 2 laps down at one point, can't find any info as to why
Josh Williams
Justin Allgaier	running in top 5, hit the wall 300 times, finally blew a tire, wnet back out, got up to 12th, blew another tire, sped on pit road
Colin Garrett
Tommy Joe Martins
Justin Haley	same exact day as Chastain
Anthony Alfredo	tire issue late, had to pit
Joe Graf, Jr.
Riley Herbst	stayed on the lead lap, looked good as expected (he got a practice race), AJ dumped, dirty, no excuse, the broadcasters gave him a break because it's AJ, but any other driver would have received full blame
Jesse Little
Chad Finchum	ran well as expected, did pretty well the day before, for not having power steering
Myatt Snider
Jeffrey Earnhardt
Colby Howard
Alex Labbe
Matt Mills
Vinnie Miller
Michael Annett	AJ dumps Herbst, takes him out
Timmy Hill
Bayley Currey
Kody Vanderwal
Caesar Bacarella
Kyle Weatherman
Stephen Leicht
Stefan Parsons
B.J. McLeod
Jeremy Clements
Daniel Hemric	AJ dumps Herbst, takes him out
Carson Ware
Brandon Brown	mechanical issue

Notes - Xfinity - Homestead 1 - 2020

Notes - Xfinity DFS - Homestead 1 - 2020 

RAW NOTES Fantasy NASCAR Notes

driver
Noah Gragson	awesome long run truck... had a 15 second lead before the caution...looked like Reddick up top
Austin Cindric	great car, could have led more laps, but ross chastain was doing his normal blocking routine
Chase Briscoe	started 6 laps down, VERY FAST, not sure if he could pass leaders on equal tires, but he has one of the best cars, the fast laps are the product of him being on different tire strategies, he also had clean because he was running right in front of the leaders
Anthony Alfredo	RCR car was good for reddick at homestead last year
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	running 2nd before the caution, not good on restarts, Taylor Moyer @taylorcmoyer · 2h Thank you to everyone involved. It was great to see @DaleJr get back out there and rip the #8 @JRMotorsports car. Needed it to go long at the end, we had a great long run car. Lacked fire off speed
Michael Annett	JR motorsports had fast cars
Harrison Burton	might have passed Jr before the caution, got better through out the race, and was in the right spot when gragson, cindric and burton went 3 wide
Joe Graf, Jr.
Jeremy Clements
Colby Howard	getting better each week
Ross Chastain	too agressive early....faded to 5th...same old story... the greatest racer ever when it comes to meaningless laps to start a race, but he isn't clutch, he fades...then gets a penalty on the last green flag
Myatt Snider	pretty good for the #93... this is probably the cieling for this car 𝘔𝘺𝘢𝘵𝘵 𝘚𝘯𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳 @MyattSnider Phew. That was ord. Thought we were the lucky dog but we weren't. We took tires and crossed the line 7th on the track, but 15th in the running order. That's why I didn't go for any spots. No point.
Colin Garrett	exactly what the Sam Hunt 26 should do if it doesnt have a problem
J.J. Yeley	the 07 car is still good, it just depends on the driver
Brandon Jones	speeding penalty on the last pit stop
Riley Herbst	basically JGR finally got to practice - Riley Herbst @rileyherbst · 1h Top 10, first time here at @HomesteadMiami . Learned a bunch ready for tomorrow! Fisted hand Building on it!
Alex Labbe
Justin Haley	running around 7th, greenflag penalty for uncontrolled tire killed him....this team just cant put full races together
Stefan Parsons	not bad for the BJM 99
Timmy Hill	this is about right, we expected way too much, this is the appropriate finish for a team that used to start and park
Matt Mills	about where he always finished last year
Jesse Little	good day for the #4 JD car, but not a good fantasy day
Josh Williams
Bayley Currey	Bayley Currey @BayleyCurrey · 2m Good day today @HomesteadMiami the Mutt and Jeff’s Porkskins machine was solid. We unfortunately had a brake issue early in the race that never quite got sorted out, but the @MhrRacing guys never gave up. Ready to line em up and do it again tomorrow! #havehelmetwilltravel
Brandon Brown
Jeffrey Earnhardt
Tommy Joe Martins	Tommy Joe Martins @TommyJoeMartins · 1h P31. Electrical issue before we even took the green flag. Just rode around all day 18 laps down. At least the car is still in one piece for tomorrow. Top15 lap times at the end on equal tires. If it wasn’t for bad luck, we’d have no luck at all. We’ll keep fighting. Thanks y’all.
B.J. McLeod
Caesar Bacarella
Ryan Sieg
Kyle Weatherman
Stephen Leicht
Chad Finchum	@ChadFinchum lost power steering quite a while ago, now getting a push to pit road, crew will go under hood and check switches on the dash to see what may have happened to cause the loss of power
Kody Vanderwal
Vinnie Miller	wreck
Justin Allgaier	mechanical issues, but also hit the wall VERY HARD - probably caused issue
Brett Moffitt	wreck

DFS NOTES - Trucks - Homestead 2020

Fantasy NASCAR Trucks notes - Homestead 2020 PDF

Notes - Xfinity - Daytona Road Course - DFS NASCAR - 2020

  DRC - Fantasy NASCAR Xfinity - 2020

• No practice

• Wet track (some took rain tires)

• Cindric and Briscoe on front row - both overdrive turn 1 ► Gragson to the lead

• 
  Cindric takes the lead on the exit of 6 (back onto the oval)
  

• Briscoe misses chicane - stop on track - drops to 14th

• Sieg huge lock up on turn 1 chicane - pits for tires = drops to 26th

• Lap 2 - Haley an Chastain miss chicane at the same time

• Briscoe pits and puts the slicks back on

• Haley misses turn 1 on lap 4 (guy once won a road course in a truck series)

• Gragson makes a stop and go

• AJ - the setup is really far off

• Field spread out...8 laps = 10th place car is 30 seconds back!!!

• Lap 9… lap turning

Fantasy NASCAR Context over Stats

This is never gospel. Never was.
If you’ve used the spreadsheet, then you’ve seen inside my mind. You know what I get right and what I get wrong. Maybe you have developed an algorithm that dismisses my bad advice, and pulls only from objective reality. Probably, you haven’t.
One of the data points that I weigh heavily is hardly traditional data - it’s race events. While they’re objective events, I subjectively extrapolate the true impact of the events on DFS NASCAR outcomes.

Pros and Cons of No NASCAR Practice in 2021 (first edition)

Pros and Cons of No NASCAR Practice in 2021 (first edition)

Pros

• DFS NASCAR players don’t need a seasonal subscription with less data existing this year
• Less data to analyze, more free time
• You do not have two watch 5-6 practice sessions each week
• We know Qualifying positions well in advance of the race
• Fantasy NASCAR players no longer have to rush to build between qualifying and start time
• There is less noise (driver quotes, meaningless practice runs, etc.)
• You can still donate to mensches, yes you, and you know who the mensch is
• Less Mike Joy
• It’s easier to play fantasy NASCAR - open the spreadsheet and roll on the day of the race
• No DVR management needed
• Mid week content has more value because nothing changes from Monday to Sunday without practice and qualifying
• YouTube DFS NASCAR shows are no longer Saturday only events
• Mike Joy only gets one opportunity to repeat the same tired factoids (Delaware water table, New England racing trivia, hot rod music at Fontana
• There will not be 32 Daytona 500 practices
• There is an edge for DFS players that rewatch races with the lap data and attentively take notes 
• More free time to work on projects around the house, depending on your wife, this might be a con

Cons

• I cannot sell content (I will accept donations for making your DFS process easier, but I cannot pretend that I am providing special insight when there is very little data available)
• I’ll be begging more
• DFS players will focus on the few data points available and end up in the similar place
• There is no longer an edge for players that attentively watch Cup practice weekly
• Friday afternoons and Saturday mornings can be boring if you have nothing else to do
• Less driver interviews for DFS insight
• Less Dale Jr commentary
• The NASCAR experience doesn’t feel full
• The technical connection to NASCAR that is absent in other sports is now gone, and the experience is distant
• Practice allowed DFS players to watch NASCAR without action, it was the last pure form of viewing for DFS players, now it’s always with money on the line
• There will still be Daytona practices somehow