An early look at prices and an early Phoenix cup projection accompanied by some turns on the optimizer. Also, I worry about tires and the facts surrounding tire tests.
In podcast #200, I just go about the business. No frills, folks, just stats. Maybe, a little #200 finger pointing, but nothing out of the ordinary. I look at the optimal lineups from both 2018 Cup races at Phoenix (or IMS) and determine how much we should trust practice data this week.
Is Phoenix a wreck fest or a conservative race? This matters. Knowing this trend will determine how DFS NASCAR players choose their value picks. A wreck fest means chasing place differential long shots. A conservative race means picking drivers that hang on to the lead lap.
Building the Phoenix spring 2018 winning lineup based on the fantasy NASCAR spreadsheet. Harvick is chalk, but how should we have filled out the rest of the lineup? What strategies are the best for DFS NASCAR lineup construction?
Kyle Busch is the greatest racer of all time. I foolishly thought that I could get away with fading him in the trucks, but I knew better in the Xfinity series. Tyler Wrecked-ick did his thing, and Christopher Bell is going to stink up a lot of shows this year.
I review the cup prices for Las Vegas and whether the salaries reflect the style of racing. I ponder the same questions for the Truck series and play around with the optimizer. The results will surprise some. Also, I analyze some of the lesser known Truck drivers.
I watched the 2018 Truck and Xfinity Las Vegas races at 2x on YouTube. There are plenty of takeaways from these races that will help us build better DFS NASCAR lineups this week.
Fast Laps are the same old Fast Laps, at least at the 550hp NO aero duct tracks. Guess What? That's only four tracks (Atlanta, Pocono, Darlington, and Homestead). Maybe Fast Laps are still dead. We'll see - THE REAL TEST is this week. I hope we get IROC, and not what we got last week. Rest assured, if Las Vegas is a failure, and Fontana is a failure, and Texas is a failure, and Kansas is a failure ...then NASCAR will admit that it screwed up, and change the package mid-season for the hundredth time.
FLASHBACK to a previously recorded podcast that might be helpful this weekend. Building the Las Vegas spring 2018 winning lineup based on the fantasy NASCAR spreadsheet. Harvick is chalk, and there are some other chalky plays (Newman, Buescher, and Almirola), but how should we have filled out the rest of the lineup? What strategies are the best for DFS NASCAR lineup construction?
Daily Fantasy NASCAR lessons learned in the first race of the Cup season. The new package failed. Don't @ me. I don't want to hear the excused that NASCAR has been parading out since Monday of last week. The Truck race was the best race of the weekend, followed by the Xfinity race, and the worst racing, and bad sign of what might come, was the Cup race. This is 2015, again.
Daily Fantasy NASCAR lessons learned in the first race of the season. Rule #1 - play the chalk. We go through every driver and do our best to tell their DFS story.
Why aren't we talking about Cup? What can we say? There are a lot of unknowns this weekend. We do not know if we can trust the historical data. Let's talk about more theories surrounding this new package and the impact on Fantasy NASCAR.
Let's look at who is racing and pretend that we know where they will finish. It's not a stretch. We're talking about the Xfinity and Truck series; the ride means a lot.
I watched the 2018 Truck Race at Atlanta on YouTube at 2x and it was great. The racing was awesome. Sure, no one could pass the leader, and by definition it was a lap turner, but there was exciting side-by-side racing throughout the top 10. Kyle Busch was a monster, but his pit crew failed him. No one has won more or lost more races on pit road than Rowdy.
A quick look at the DFS scoreboard from the 2018 Atlanta Xfinity and Truck race. It looks a pretty conservative DFS race. The name of the game might be finishing position.
One more looks at Daytona Xfinity trends, and a closer inspection of the winning DFS NASCAR lineups at DraftKings. We'll highlight some names to watch out for on Saturday.
The Daytona 500 daily fantasy NASCAR spreadsheet is only $2 for the Daytona 500. Just send me $2 at: https://www.paypal.me/PearceDietrich Venmo: @race4theprize (provide your gmail address in the note section of the payment, so I can share the sheet)
This is happening. DFS NASCAR Truck series at DraftKings. Check out the Free Truck series spreadsheet and listen to me start from scratch in the Truck series. Not scratch, but I honestly explain I am a fan, not a die hard expert. Actually, I am a better iRacing truck driver than truck DFS player.
The Daytona 500 daily fantasy NASCAR spreadsheet is only $2 for the Daytona 500. Just send me $2 at: https://www.paypal.me/PearceDietrich Venmo: @race4theprize (provide your gmail address in the note section of the payment, so I can share the sheet)
A look a the Daytona Duel races. Is it a conservative Thursday night race or a wreckfest? We run the lineup optimizer along with some very causal projections.
The Daytona 500 daily fantasy NASCAR spreadsheet is only $2 for the Daytona 500. Just send me $2 at: https://www.paypal.me/PearceDietrich Venmo: @race4theprize (provide your gmail address in the note section of the payment, so I can share the sheet)
The Clash was a boring single file lap turner as predicted, then Jimmie Johnson wiped out 14 cars. Was it intentional or just a driver that has run out of skill? I'm going to roll out some new payment plans, and congratulations to Ryan. He bought the spreadsheet for $2 and won multiple Fantasy NASCAR GPPs. Please review the podcast on iTunes.v
In this podcast, I compare the new restrictor plate NASCAR package to possible seismic shifts in other major sports. This change is like using metal baseball bats in the MLB, removing the three point line in the NBA, and outlawing zone defense in the NFL
NASCAR will take wins away at the track. That's a noble pursuit, but we all know that the implementation will be a disaster and the effect a PR disaster. How can NASCAR police the winners, if they do not police the winners? NASCAR admitted that they will allow teams to destroy their cars during a celebration after the race. Celebrations are illegal in college football; NASCAR should follow. Also, qualifying is going to be a disaster for DFS.
Look at the pay out structure from the 2015 Clash (the prize money has likely dropped since then, not to mention inflation). First place profited, second place barely came out ahead, and for the rest, it was a losing endeavor (especially the jokers that wrecked their cars).
MORE CLASH TRENDS! Looking at the trends for the most trendiest of races. Where do the top DFS scores start? Do drivers matter? Does salary matter? Is the Daytona Clash a wreckfest or a conservative snooze? Can anyone defeat RotoDoc at Daily Fantasy NASCAR when it comes to the Daytona Clash?
Passing the leader isn’t happening without help. The clean air is too much of an advantage.
Will there always be clean air ...at Dega the pack never catches traffic. And when they rarely do the speed difference is such that the mappers have to acquiesce to the leaders
First Off
Give credit to Jeff Gluck for periscoping the practice
Reddit hated it
Everyone on twitter hated
People in my feed
And everyone commenting on the Writers threads
The writers were objective or hated it
Gluck did not carry NASCAR’s water
Matt Weaver was very tough on NASCAR
Cale B Lang...wasn’t there, but she was very optimistic…. But that’s her personality...I would not consider her a synochopant….
It's always sad when people lose their jobs, and no, I'm not going to tell them to learn to code. However, this isn't a big deal. Jayski had been dead for years. I don't understand the twitter eulogies. It's just a website.
I watched the 2017 Daytona Clash and analyzed the driving. It was pretty boring. In the beginning of the race, the drivers went two and three wide at times, but three-quarters of the race was single file follow the leader racing. There was a wreck on the last lap because of aggressive bump drafting, but other than that, the wrecks were uneventful. My clash DFS build takeaway is to play drivers in the back (like always) or the "3 team stack and 3 in the back" build. I explain this during the podcast. (same notes as 2018 Clash Viewing)
Looking at the trends for the most trendiest of races. Where do the top DFS scores start? Do drivers matter? Does salary matter? Is the Daytona Clash a wreckfest or a conservative snooze? Can anyone defeat RotoDoc at Daily Fantasy NASCAR when it comes to the Daytona Clash?
I subscribed to Motorsports Analytics. It's excellent. I'm not sure that it will help with DFS strategy, but there may be some utility to this website. Regardless of a DFS edge, this is the best NASCAR writing on the internet. The analytics and insider gossip are enlightening.
I watched the 2018 Daytona Clash and analyzed the driving. It was pretty boring. In the beginning of the race, the drivers went two and three wide at times, but three-quarters of the race was single file follow the leader racing. There was a wreck on the last lap because of aggressive bump drafting, but other than that, the wrecks were uneventful. My clash DFS build takeaway is to play drivers in the back (like always) or the "3 team stack and 3 in the back" build. I explain this during the podcast.
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(watch it at 2x speed - more exciting and it wont consume as much time) Takeaways:
We do not know that the "plate light" package will be this extreme, but if so...
Tandem racing will be popular (two car bump drafts or 3-4 cars lines)
Side drafting will result in cars spreading out all over the track to find clean air and avoid side drafting. This along with the reduced speeds will result in multiple racing grooves.
A bump draft tandem or a group of 3-4 cars will earn the fast laps, and not necessarily the car running in first.
The Talladega Fall 2018 was dominated by SHR cars working together. The 2019 intermediate tracks could become team races or manufacturer races.
Spotters will be busy, and specific spotters may give a driver an edge - T.J. Majors/Joey Logano combo comes to mind.
Passing takes a lot of work. Drivers who are accustomed to passing simply because they have a better car will no longer have that advantage. Drivers must be patient or else frustration could result in wrecks (e.g. 8 laps to go - https://youtu.be/DqIb9-M57k8?t=2904)
Off the top of my head, patient plate drivers that might excel this year - Austin Dillon, Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, Joey Logano.
This package would have been great for A.J. Allmendinger. He ran well in the all star race and had been great at the plate races over the last couple years.
Ricky Stenhouse could be great now that he's on an even playing field. On the other hand, his aggressive plate style could wreck the field.
(note: podcast recorded at 3 a.m. while holding a semi-sleeping baby) We do not know how this will work. It’s theoretical...in the past, NASCAR theoretically fixed the sport with annual down force reductions, but nothing changed.
In defense of the latest theoretical fix, the previous package changes were widely criticized from the get go....
Johnny Sauter says, "I don't pay to race," then you don't race. Welcome to 2019 Johnny. Also in the news, NASCAR tests the new restrictor plate package at Fontana.