Saturday, February 13, 2021

Daytona Pre-Race Notes

Daytona 2/14/21

Cup

  • Daytona 500...
  • Play drivers in the back. End of Show. End of Article. 
  • You expect long articles and hour long shows, which doesn't make sense on a normal week, but this weekend, that's just crazy. I'll give you the YouTube show, but I refuse to write what has already been written.
  •  Play all 6 in the back... check the spreadsheet - I have the optimals from the last 21 plate race (sine DK went to 6 drivers). This happens some not the majority of the time.
  • Play 5 from the back and 1 driver up front or 4 and 2.
  • What is the back? You draw the line where you want. If you're a long time fan, and yes fan is a strong word, let's just say long time follower, then you might remember in 2017 Daytona Summer Race. I was adamant that you draw the line at 25. It was a 5 and 1 build, and two of the drivers starting in the back started between 20th and 25th.
  • Cool story bro. I'm sorry, but I'm clairvoyant. If I could see the future, then I could see that no one is going to read this, and I wouldn't waste my time.
  • JUST GIVE ME THE PICKS
  • Kurt Busch - You can read a spreadsheet, and so can everyone else. He's been terrible at Daytona. It's possible that the stats and his starting position on the edge could suppress his ownership, if that's the game you are playing.
  • Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - Don't worry about the spreadsheet or Daytona vs Talladega. He wrecks a lot. That scares owners. He's trying to win, he doesn't want a top 10 participation trophy. He's not trying to be the best at exercising. It's an all or nothing GPP play, as it should be.
  • Chris Buescher - He's trying to be best at exercising. Buescher will settle for a top 10. He has a top 10 finish in 5 of the last 7 at Daytona, but he's only been in 3 optimal lineups in 10 races. That's a good number, but a terrible for a driver that does not wreck.
  • Matt DiBenedetto - This is Dibenedetto's last season. Cindric should be in this car right now, but he probably wanted a bigger paycheck than the Wood Bros could afford. Cindwreck's daddy will probably foot the rest of the bill next year. That being said, DiBenedetto better get that first career win while he can.
  • Brad Keselowski - He's lost it. He embarrassed himself yet again at the Duel. He wrecks and blames everyone else. Does he not know that's how all wrecks at plate tracks work. Everyone wrecks because of someone else. I'm looking at full fade, if his ownership is high.
  • Denny Hamlin - He's the best, but can he continue to avoid the mistakes of other drivers? I say no. I'm looking at full fade, if his ownership is high. 
  • Martin Truex, Jr. - Same as BK, Hamlin, and Truex - if I fade and they wreck, that's huge advantage. There aren't many strategy levers for DFS players to pull. This is one of them. If you want to feel like you're doing something, then you fade the chalk because they're is no such thing as chalk at plate tracks.
  • Cole Custer - I cannot believe I have already written this much. I like Custer. He just needs to get lucky.
  • Joey Gase - We'll need a bunch of wrecks and wave arounds at the end and then an aggressive Gase on the last run. That's a low probability outcome.
  • Tyler Reddick - In 2018, he survived an Xfinity Daytona wreckfest and won. That was after multiple OT restarts.
  • Chase Briscoe - He has a good car. He has enough experience (truck and xfinity reps might be better than Cup because those lower series clowns attempt more stupid maneuvers). A top 5-10 will work.
  • Erik Jones - Imagine if this car wins in the first race after Bubba. The racists will come out of the woodwork. You'll probably want to stay away from NASCAR twitter. The car is good enough, Jones has a Daytona summer win and a clash win. If Chevy works together, then Jones will have protection for most of the race. There is a squadron of Chevys. A top 5-10 will work.
  • Derrike Cope - I know he says that he's out there to win, but he has to say that to justify taking a spot. He might survive the wrecks, big if, but he could be 4 laps down at the finish.
  • Quin Houff - Same as gase. Even if the race somehow plays out for him, he has to risk damaging his car at the end for a top 10 instead of a top 20. I doubt that happens.
  • Ross Chastain - Wrecky Spinhouse Jr Jr. - or Ross Crash-tain. I love it. He'll be popular and dangerous, but that's plate racing, folks. He was a good plate racer in the xfinity series.
  • Cody Ware - If any of the Ware cars are rebellious and push it, I would put my money on Daddy's boy. This is yet another example of the Rick Ware Mystique. Cody is not assigned silver spoon status. Neither is his brother, pro rapper, Carson Ware aka Young C Boy.
  • Anthony Alfredo - Front Row builds decent plate cars. Just avoid the wreck, Cheesy.
  • Josh Bilicki - Aside from the lightening ended Daytona race, when has an absolute back marker been optimal at a plate race? The answer is never in the last 21 races. Brennan Poole was optimal twice but he wasn't an absolute back marker, he often finished better than Suarez and LaJoie last season.
  • B.J. McLeod - Nope.
  • Austin Cindric - Could his confidence be a problem or will he remain humble and just happy to get a chance in Cup? I am leaning towards the former.
  • Kaz Grala - How many more chances will Kaz get? When JGL shutdown early in the 2018 xfinity season his career has gone on life support. He needs to do something or he's going to end up working for his dad at Fury racing building race cars for Tony Stewart's short track Circus. I would love for him to settle for a top 15 because that's all we need in this spot, but he won't settle.
  • I went light today, but the time that I won 1st and 2nd in a plate race GPP, I only entered 3 lineups, so I'll stick with that strategy again.

  • DUEL RACE NOTES...
  • Live show tonight at 5:30 - Brandon Cruz DFS YouTube Channel
  • my first question...Will William Byron race? I am confident that Alex Bowman drops to the back, we've seen him do it before. Just look at his data. Byron is not on the pole, and he raced last year.
  • Byron tweeted - What a cool photo op they brought back today after qualifying. Great effort by the @Hendrick24Team to qualify 2nd tonight. Focused now on the Duels.... does that mean he's racing? I am leaning towards yes.
  • Cole Custer tweeted - Didn’t have the single car speed we wanted tonight, but we’re gonna go make it happen in the Duel tomorrow..... his price works and his starting position, all we need is a little aggression, and that seems to be the case
  • remember...in last year's Duel, Stenhouse finished 8th, but he was leading the race with 2 laps remaining. The duel lap by lap data is just one of many tabs in the spreadsheet
  • Hamlin finished 11th last year, but he was in 5th with two lap remaining
  • Elliott finished 13th last year, but he was in 8th with two lap remaining
  • Ty Dillon finished 11th last year, but he was in 6th with two lap remaining
  • Kurt Bush finished 8th last year, but he was in 4th with two lap remaining
  • Erik Jones went for it last year.... in the final five lap he went from 3rd to 13th to 6th
  • Rodney Childers tweeted that Kevin Harvick has a great car, and should be on the frotn row, but a RR was going down on the Q lap. He could be the main hog in duel #2
  • It just dawned on me I didn't play this stupid Daytona song in any of my podcasts this year. I guess it's not to late, technically I haven't recorded a Daytona plate race podcast, and with the live shows, I probably won't. Traditions die.
  • four possible lap leader in duel #1 - Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano. I may be to narrow with my pool, but at least that's decent place to start.
  • duel 2 - William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon, Chase Elliott. Im not sure that Kyle Busch or BK can get up front and lead laps.

Xfinity
  • Races with qualifying = 36 car field
  • Non-Q races = 40 car field


Trucks
  • Races with qualifying = 36 car field
  • Non-Q races = 40 car field
  • The No. 98 truck will see a change as Grant Enfinger, who finished fourth in the 2020 Truck Series point standings, will move to part-time and will share the entry with Christian Eckes this season. Champion Power Tool will return as a sponsor on the truck. https://tobychristie.com/2021/02/04/thorsport-racing-confirms-swap-to-toyota-and-announces-driver-lineup-for-2021/
  • I've begun work on my Trucks article. Anything that hits the cutting room floor will end up here, and some unrefined, unedited, raw notes that will likely turn into cute little sentences over at DK nation.
  • Do I really want to look at plate race lap-by-lap data from 2021. God help me, I thought I was going to take it easy this year. I should be charging you $400 at this point, but I will stick to my Jesus Tour and continue my poor people pilgrimage and pass out free spreadsheets in the streets. I am looking forward to turning over some tables in the temple.
  • Is this going to random ramblings or actual DFS hot takes? I don't know.
  • Comparing lap-by-lap for Creed - Daytona opener vs Talladega - it's very interesting when you factor in the context of the season. Check out my DK nation article or just look for yourself in the spreadsheet. You have to dig deeper than finishing position or average position.
  • How many plate track wins does Matt Crafton have? ...........ZERO
  • All of these drivers suck at plate tracks. They're pitiful.

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