Tuesday, February 9, 2021

daytona clash road course 2021 pre-race notes backup

 daytona clash road course 2021 pre-race notes backup

  • Clash Package and Week 2 DRC package will both be LOW downforce. The 2020 race was high downforce.
  • Keselowski and DiBenedetto hint that the the DRC clash race will be a test session
  • What the drivers had to say about the Daytona Road Course - https://nascar.nbcsports.com/2020/08/16/chase-elliott-denny-hamlin-martn-truex-kaz-grala-jimmie-johnson-what-drivers-said-after-daytona-road-course-race/ (This is always one the most useful weekly articles for DFS players.)
  • Clash - competition caution on lap 15 of 35
  • Qualifying draw - Monday 9pm 
  • Busch has signed on to sponsor the event. I wonder how much of a discount they received by playing hard ball and letting negotiations to last until the week of the race. Yet another sign that this is an economic bubble. 
  • Stenhouse post added.
  • As predicted...Stenhouse Clash Mania became a thing
  • More Clash thoughts...
  • Almirola, AD, and Stenhouse seem like the popular value plays
  • Newman and Buescher seem like risky pivots (I will try to dive into their lap data more today)
  • Hamlin or Elliott build, Hamlin and Elliott build (seems very likely) or No Hamlin/Elliott build
  • Kurt Busch seems like a great play and he drives builds in a slightly different direction
  • Mistakes will ruin plays
  • If a driver goes into the infield grass, or flat spots a tire, then they'll pit and are likely done, but that's not entirely true. When the mistake happens and who makes the mistake matters
  • If Elliott makes the mistake, it's going to be hard for him to recover and earn the necessary hog points. Same for Hamlin. If Truex messes up early, he'll likely rebound because we do not need hog points from him. His pd pts and finishing points are all still on the table. The PD drivers have more room for error, the hogs (Hamlin and Elliott, or anyone else starting up front have no room for error)
  • The value drivers have no room for error unless the field is really embracing testing
  • Pit strategy. Not sure if NASCAR is allowing teams to take tires before the competition caution. I hope not. If they do, then everyone will pit early before the caution except for the teams that simply do not care and are purely testing. These teams will want a full pit stop under caution to adjust the setup for pure testing. I wouldn't worry about this. You can't control it.
  • So I took the median lap times from the 2020 DRC (excluding lap 1 and final lap of a run), then took the median time of the top 20. Then counted how many laps faster than that mark a driver ran, it's been added to the sheet (% good lap times in 2020 drc) ...Newman was slow.
  • It's worth noting that Chase Elliott did not pass for the lead at the DRC last season, he inherited the lead when Truex was penalized. Elliott is a top car, but Truex might be better
  • Elliott to the back. I still like him. Top 5 in 5 laps.

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