Saturday, February 20, 2021

Archived - Weekend Notes - Daytona Road Course 2/21/2021

Past Race Notes

DFS NASCAR Weekend Fantasy Notes - Daytona Road Course

2/21/2021

Cup

  • Dirt turned out to be a major issue in the Clash. No one saw that coming. It could be a huge deal in this weekend.
  • update - created Clash 2021 Daytona road course notes
  • Clash lap by lap data
  • One of my favorite lines from a draftkings video..... Michael McDowell - He was a road racing instructor for the Bob Bondurant racing school, Yeah… when he was 15 … he helped kids with go karts ...get outta here
  • that was free m last year’s Roval video
  • IN ALL 3 SERIES... because of a starting grid based on Daytona points, good cars are starting in the back, but more importantly, they will get poor pit selections, exacerbating the situation is that EVERYONE stays on the lead lap at road courses, so everyone pits together. For example, Alex Bowman could be inside the top 10, but his pit stall will be near a car in 30th. Bowman could be exiting his stall, while the 30th place driver is entering his pit. This WILL happen, so knowing this, Bowman and the drivers with poor pit stalls will have their hands forced. They have to follow the "pit before the end of the stage" strategy to avoid chaos on pit road. This should be fine, but if there is a late race caution, or a stage 3 caution, most drivers will pit because old tires are terrible at the DRC especially in this package, then Bowman and the place differential all-stars in the back will be in a terrible situation.
  • Larson's team won the Rolex 24 at the DRC in 2015.
  • Entry list changes
  • small self promotion - but a race4theprize.com spreadsheet user won the truck GPP friday and the Xfinity GPP saturday - hopefully someone out there, or me, can make this weekend a sweep.
  • Optimizer is chasing place differential, I don't blame it, but I do not expect a wreck fest. This should be very green
  • There will be mistakes, but not mistakes that ruin multiple cars, probably just problems for the driver that makes the mistake
  • If conditions are green, then flat spotted tires will be falt tires, we saw this several times yesterday in the xfinity series.
  • Just like yesterday, place differential drivers can makes mistakes and still be alive at the end, Gragson got back on the lead lap, but AJ was toast, and Cindric barely squeezed into the optimal just because too many cars wrecked in the infield on the final restart. If Gragson does not wreck, he knocks Cindric out. this means....
  • Elliott and Hamlin need to be near perfect. Hamlin's price and starting position gives him some wiggle room, Elliott has a lot less rope. There are more laps today, so it's hard to pull the trigger on the top two fade. I doubt I would play either in cash.
  • Almirola, Buescher, and Reddick are on the edge of being optimal and not. IF one has cieling day (top 10), then they're in. If they finish 15th, then nope. Buescher with his price and starting position has the most flexibility and works with the worse finishes. He should be the most popular of the group, Reddick and Almirola might make more sense in GPPs.
  • A low performance from Reddick and Almirola brings Stenhouse on to the board, so you might not need to take the Almirola/reddick risk if you're willing to swallow Stenhouse.
  • adding the roval 20 laps to the sheet
  • It's worth noting that none of these drivers are part timers hoping to stand out in a rare opportunity. The 30th to 40th place cars will be very conservative. The 20th to 30th place drivers are not on steady financial ground, so it's unlikely that they race anyone tight (maybe they're race another 20th to 30th place drivers tight, but who cares if they are battling for 25th, and even then, the battle won't be a knock down drag out fight). In the xfinity and truck series all the star align for stupidity. Desperation + lack of talent + poor equipment + an utter lack of respect. No one in the cup series is desperate today. They are all talented, and the ones that are not or do not have the equipment know their place in this series- they're just happy to be out there.
  • As we discussed on the show, Chris Buescher slides into the optimal too often, he's projection, admittedly aggressive, is heavily influenced by ONE road course race where the early pit strategy worked in his favor. I could dial him back, but to dial his project back while leaving everyone else the same is not good habit. I'm going to leave it, and manually override when I put lineups together, so I do not have too much buescher. You can use the exclude function in the optimizer. newman seems like the terrible pivot away, you're probably better with Buescher.
  • not much out of nascar twitter
  • haley to the rear, dont care
  • Erik Jones to the back, no big deal, he was already there, but why? For an engine change ...LAST WEEK. The nascar suits live making up new rules so discourage changing engines during the 500 week, drivers were told they would be sent to the back in week 2 (real punishment as opposed to in the 500 where it does not matter)

Xfinity

  • Cindric vs Allmendinger
  • Cindric wasn't great last season at DRC. He was very good, but not great. that being said, Briscoe raced him dirty. Allmendinger setup was way off last year.
  • Check out the notes page for notes from last year’s race
  • Entry list changes every hour
  • A lot of pricing errors on DK's part
  • 100% focused on trucks right now, will pick up here on Saturday
  • Is this a good lineup or a very equal lineup. It's definitely not a great field, but it's not garbage. other than AJ and Cindwreck, no one is good, but they're all top 20 contenders.
  • Truck race got harry at the end, last year, Xfinity race got harry at the green flag
  • Truck race got REALLY HARRY
  • Thinking about being little more aggressive with my projections given the mayhem at the end of the truck race. I could easily see a 15th place ceiling driver earning an unexpected 10th place finish because of wrecks and restarts at the end.  
  • Maybe Hemric isn’t as bad as I say he is, not playing him, but I need to be a little more open minded about his talent/car.
  • Added 2020 Charlotte Roval laps to the spreadsheet, if you want to dig really deep. That was a rainy wreckfest with a wild optimal lineup.
  • Everyone else knows how to get on the entry list except Carl Long. He's known for weeks who was racing his cars this weekend, but like always, he waits until the final entry list deadline on Friday mornings to enter into races. Everyone can do it on Monday, but every single week for the last two years, Long enters late, and I have to update the price sheet and the Q sheet. I hate Carl Long.
  • Run this race 100 times.... How many times are Allmendinger and Cindric the lowest scoring of that tier? At least 50% or the time.
  • There are 5 drivers priced above 10K that can easily hit 60 points. Three of them do not need to lead a lap. They can make mistakes, just as long as they have a decent run at the end. If AJ or Cindric make one mistake, it will be tough for them to be optimal. Even if they rebound or have a good race, AJ and Cindric can get knocked out by Gragson, Allgaier, or Haley having a good races. Extra caution laps mean fewer fast lap points as well.
  • AJ and Cindric seems unlikely, not that can't both split points, but that is rare as well, but because Gragson, Allgaier, or Haley can be more efficient. Plus AJ and Cindric have to finish 1 and 2, again, that's a stretch.
  • Gragson, Allgaier, and Haley do not have to win. AJ and Cindric do.
  • My projection is very generous for AJ and Cindric in terms of hog points, and giving both a win, and yet Gragson, Allgaier, or Haley still out score them.
  • At 10:45 am, My ownership will be low. I'll swap AJ and Cindric into some of my lineups, but it will be a fraction of my gragson ownership, a fraction of allgaier, it will be closer with Haley, but haley will be much more popular. This is assuming that I play three 10k drivers. If I play two, I wont have much cindric/AJ.
  • I AM NOT A PAINT SCHEME GUY.... but I really like the Brandt cars this weekend. I'm sorry. I can't help it.
  • For those keeping track...yes Gibbs .... yes Gibbs ... no Gibbs..... now back to yes Gibbs
  • Never go full Brandon Jones.... last year he luckily avoided the late race restart wreck and took the lead.,.. it could easily have Ben him with the DNF...I am going to try to dial mine back a little if I can....I was way to heavy on Jones on the You Tube show... he will still be my most owned driver, but I need some hedges
  • Ty Gibbs or Kris Wright allowed too much lineup flexibility to fade them. They allow players to maximally (Is that a word, spell check says so) chase place differential 

Trucks

  • Sheldon Creed was great last year.
  • Moffitt, if he races, won't have nearly as good as a truck as he did last year in a GMS truck. Niece just doesn't have it.
  • Check out the notes page for notes from last year’s race
  • Is Raphael Lessard a road racer, the fox broadcasters said yes, and he was decent last year at the DRC. However, when I look through his career and read his bio and website, etc., it seems to me that yes, he raced in Canada, but Canada has oval tracks, too. Imagine that. Just because you are from another country does not mean that you are a road expert. Alex Labbe has a road racing background because the Pinty series has a lot of road courses, but Lessard has barely competed in that series. He has one road race, and as far as I can tell, the rest are ovals. It seems like lazy stereotyping by Adam Alexander, Parsons, and Waltrip, and I'm not at all surprised.
  • Entry list changes every hour
  • Could be a night race with rain or a giant disaster
  • Will Camden Murphy park the NEMCO truck? Cruz and I will discuss this on the live show tomorrow.....looks like he has a sponsor - wreckfestgame.com - he should be racing (side note, the trailer for that game looks pretty cool)
  • Lawless Alan added to the player pool
  • optimizer is loving place differential, I might have to tinker with it, but there is not much that I can do. If it rains, maybe there are multiple lap leaders and it become a total place differential race. Maybe its very conservative in the rain and one driver runs away with the race. last year's Xfinity roval race was a mess in the rain, the optimal lineup was PURE place differential. Allmendinger was barely a hog with 7 hog points, but he also scored 21 place differential points. (link to that sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TJReHR1iiBpHrH1qBucELzKsDDIfgrwxUNP4DBw1jus/edit?usp=sharing)
  • Rain might slightly affect the early part of the race, but even that is in question
  • JHN crew chief - Eric Phillips - won the 2017 xfinity Watkins Glen race with Kyle Busch driving, 37 wins as a truck series crew chief. The last time he was a fulltime crew chief was 2018 - #18 xfinity car. It was a disappointing season, but how much of that was Phillips setup and how much of it was the terrible drivers doing part time work (Gragson, Benjamin, Herbst, Preece, etc)
  • Creed and Nemechek and a horde of place differential plays seems to be my pool this a.m.
  • my biggest concern of the last optimizer run (as of 10:23 am) is Johnny Sauter. The last two years have been a mess, but maybe that scares people away. Maybe DFS players and other touts didn't watch the race and didn't look at the lap by lap data, if they're just staring at finishing position and average finish, then they won't play him or recommend him. I guess I could read their work, but I would rather do my own, okay I'll check Phil's article really quick, COME ON PHIL - Norm Benning! With the new post covid truck rules, I do not believe an UGLY punt worked once. I recorded a couple podcast discussing ugly punts in 2019. They sometimes worked under the old format. I want to be careful because Phil's not wrong. There's a good chance that 5-10 trucks will fail or wreck. Benning is out there playing the role of the turtle. The only thing he is racing against is nascar. He has to clock laps at a certain time as to not get black flagged for failing to meet minimum speed, this should not be hard to do at a road course, and nascar will likely be pretty forgiving. It's probably not a terrible cash play, but if he finishes 28th which is definitely a ceiling projection, a home run for him, he only returns 5x. That won't likely be optimal unless NO VALUE comes through. It's worth talking about, but I will not be building in that direction. Back to SAUTER - phil did not mention him, so that's good if you want to get possible lower ownership, but bad when Sauter inevitably ruins your lineup.
  • lets see what brandon cruz is saying... (check out his YouTube video and patreon... here are a sample of his thoughts, I'm not going to take notes on his whole video, go watch and give the video a like)
    • no love for JHN?
    • Expecting Sauter chalk (track history is a factor)
    • also on the Place Differential guys
  • I ask you... How much money are you willing to leave on the table?
  • imagine you are a young driver, and you turned 1,000 laps on iracing or the simulator to prepare for the Daytona Road Course, then all of the sudden, NASCAR changes the track by adding turtles in the chicane. Good luck!


In case I didn't say it enough during the video, the same tools that were $200 last season and the season before that are now free. These are hard times; it's the least that I can do. Thank you for supporting me for all of these years.

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