Friday, January 15, 2021

Twitter DFS Lists

Whether you agree or disagree with the ”stay in your lane” sentiment, and there are strong arguments for (Thomas Sowell in his book Intellectuals and Society) and against (Scott Adams in his book Loserthink), there is no place for politics in a Twitter DFS list.

I’ve learned first hand, stay in your lane. People visit race4theprize.com for DFS NASCAR info, not cynical political takes. If I step out of that lane, I lose patrons. Period.

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

notes - Homestead - cup - 2020

DFS NASCAR notes - CUP - homestead

Fantasy NASCAR notes

  • Day race…. Delayed by rain…..no longer a hot day race…. The Setup that works will be different

  • Hot day… but rain clouds keeping it cool

  • Hamlin setup - looked at final run from happy hour practice in 2019, and the 1st two runs of the fall race of 2019

  • Big rain clouds… temperature dropping

  • Logano gets good shove from teammate BK on the inside takes the lead

Thursday, January 7, 2021

No Favorites

Removing bias in DFS NASCAR

fantasy nascar bias

I do not have a favorite driver. I don’t even have an affinity towards any team in all of sports (I root for the Reds, but they’ve been awful for 30 years, so there is hardly any favoritism). My indifference seems to bother people, not because they are perplexed that one can be refuse to swear allegiance to a sports team, but because they cannot ridicule me based on my team. It’s not fair. I can mercilessly tear them apart based on their team, but they cannot return the attack.

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Fantasy NASCAR Optimal Lineup Appearances 2020

Fantasy NASCAR Optimal Lineups 2020 - Cup Series

Driveroptimalrace%
Kevin Harvick14360.39
Denny Hamlin13360.36
Ryan Blaney12360.33
Erik Jones12360.33
Martin Truex, Jr.10360.28
Ty Dillon10360.28
Chase Elliott9360.25
Cole Custer9360.25
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.9360.25
Joey Logano8360.22
Alex Bowman8360.22
Tyler Reddick8360.22
Austin Dillon7350.20
Aric Almirola7360.19
Christopher Bell7360.19
Bubba Wallace7360.19
Michael McDowell7360.19
Matt DiBenedetto6360.17
William Byron5360.14
Chris Buescher5360.14
Ryan Preece5360.14
Brad Keselowski4360.11
Kyle Busch4360.11
Jimmie Johnson4350.11
Matt Kenseth4320.13
Kurt Busch3360.08
John Hunter Nemechek3360.08
Corey LaJoie3360.08
Brennan Poole3350.09
Clint Bowyer2360.06
Daniel Suarez2350.06
Brendan Gaughan250.40
Ryan Newman1330.03
Ross Chastain180.13
Justin Haley120.50
David Ragan111.00
Quin Houff0360.00
Kyle Larson040.00
Reed Sorenson0170.00
James Davison0150.00
Stanton Barrett010.00
Timmy Hill0360.00
J.J. Yeley0340.00
Joey Gase0330.00
Garrett Smithley0260.00
Josh Bilicki0220.00
B.J. McLeod0160.00
Gray Gaulding090.00
Chad Finchum030.00
Kaz Grala010.00
Cody Ware010.00
David Starr010.00

DFS NASCAR Optimal Lineups 2020 - Cup Series

Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Leaving Money on the Table - Xfinity Series Fantasy NASCAR

 DFS NASCAR Xfinity Series Race where more than $1,000 was unspent at DraftKings

  • Daytona 1
  • Pocono
  • Kentucky 1
  • Daytona Road Course
  • Roval
  • Talladega 2
  • Kansas 2
  • Phoenix 2

Monday, January 4, 2021

Single File Restarts at Xfinity Road Courses

This will be an unpopular opinion at first, but let ruminate. Let the idea breathe. Everyone should be on board.

The Xfinity series should do single file restarts at the Daytona Road Course. Here are the reasons:

  • Xfinity teams are poor. They can’t afford to tear up race cars on kamikaze restarts.

  • Xfinity drivers and crews do not have enough experience at the new road courses to attempt double file restarts.

  • Yes, restart carnage is exciting, but the wrecks denigrate the actual racing.

  • Less wrecks means quicker races, and cautions at road courses can last a lifetime.

  • DFS NASCAR becomes less of a lottery, and more about identifying driver skill.

  • It won’t be a total snooze, drivers can still run 2 to 3 wide into turn 1, but it will be more spread out.

  • Mike Harmon’s team did nothing wrong last year, but when the 10th place car trails the leader by half a minute, and the 30th place cars fill the front row on a restart with old tires, bad things will happen. A single file restart will allow crafty drivers to go around or find a safe space. With a double file restarts, the result will always be a Shark Sandwich.

Saturday, January 2, 2021

The Tradeoffs of Not Practicing

Bob Pockrass posted some interesting Daytona Road course notes in December. Among them is the unsurprising note that there will not be practice for The Clash or the week two race.

First of all, the Xfinity and Trucks Series need practice. There is no way around it. The racing product is embarrassing without practice. Imagine paying full price to watch a dress rehearsal. The actors are holding their scripts and the director is shouting instructions while the stage hands stumble around in the back. An argument can be made that the drivers don’t really need practice; they need to be better on restarts, and that cannot be simulated in practice, but that argument is not being made. Instead we hear something about Covid, and words like adapt and evolve are thrown around to silence critics.

Friday, January 1, 2021

Why isn’t Austin Cindric undefeated at road courses?

Austin Cindric - Jam him in for DFS NASCAR Road Courses?

He’s the best road racer in a series with garbage road racers and garbage equipment, but you can’t win them all. The following evidence can be used to defend Cindric as a must play at road courses. It can also be used to justify fading him because bad luck happens.

Road Course Losses

  • Mid Ohio ‘18 - There were cautions in stage 3, and Allgaier ended up with fresh tires while Cindric did not. Cindric led 79% of the laps
  • Roval ‘18 - Chase Briscoe (non-playoff driver not point racing) pits before the end of stage 1, then restarts behind the leader (stayed out on old tires). Briscoe easily takes the lead, then pits before the end of stage 3 and cruises to a victory at a track with few passing zones. 
  • Roval ‘19 - A.J. Allmendinger is better. Period. 
  • Road America ‘18 - Mechanical failure. 
  • Road America ‘19 - Cindric follows an unconventional tire strategy. If he pits with the leaders, then he likely wins. 
  • Indy GP ‘20 - NASCAR officials kneecapped him with a bogus penalty on a restart.