Friday, February 1, 2019

173 - Las Vegas Test

Download Podcast - 173 - Las Vegas Test

source: @ASManess
First Off Give credit to Jeff Gluck for periscoping the practice Reddit hated it Everyone on twitter hated People in my feed And everyone commenting on the Writers threads The writers were objective or hated it Gluck did not carry NASCAR’s water Matt Weaver was very tough on NASCAR Cale B Lang...wasn’t there, but she was very optimistic…. But that’s her personality...I would not consider her a synochopant….

she just loves nascar Utter just reported the facts, it was pretty objective, but he did manage to misspell the name of head nascar official Jim Probst throughout the article Credit to A.S. Manness for pointing that out...he’s worth a follow….he’s the data scientist that RCR hired a couple years ago and gets credit for their two wins in 2017 - phoenix and the coke 600 Maybe the coke 600 fuel mileage gamble...maybe i give them credit….but that’s more of other teams being sheep and pitting with the rest of the field THe phoenix race was not data. Newman stayed out at the end and jumped to the lead. He then blocked Kyle Larson, and February 2017 Larson was not a guy that would put shrek in the wall He will now. And I hope Manness’ data tells him that Regardless of my inceduality about his data…..Manness released some single lap run data from the vegas should check it out Kyle Busch hated the package and he should His whole career, he has been in superior equipment. On an occasion, his xfinity 18 car is not the best….and guess what happens...he doesn’t win Busch wants us to believe that this removes all driver skill I get that….I completely understand that on throttle and off throttle time in the turns in major component of racing But is that Kyle’s only strength? We’ve heard this before...the drivers that have been blessed with great equipment always complain when the equipment is changed They always say that it hurts drivers skill The variable that is being changed is not SKILL…’s the equipment If skill is the true measure….then an equipment change should not matter...busch still has more skill….or at least we have been led to believe that…..but as i pointed out….when his truck or xfinity ride is just good, and not great…..or his pit crew is not perfect….he does not win An argument that could be made ...that the only skill that matters is on-off throttle time in the corners…..but to reduce racing to one single skill is not a good look There are a lot of ways to look at this….I’m not trying to change anyone’s mind But a pragmatic approach is probably the most beneficial Xfinity cars are faster So what The cup series is not defined as the hardest cars to drive series….or the experts only division Danica Patrick raced in cup for years….because she had a sponsor and a brand There are plenty of other pay-to-play drivers...and start and parkers throughout the years You are lying to yourself ... if you think CUP is the pinnacle of racing It’s the most popular...that’s all….popular does not mean it’s the best form of racing….comic book movies are popular... Does that mean they’re good movies….. no….. Unfortunately the film industry has disintegrated…..and nothing good is ever made….so actually the comic book movies are the best by default….. NASCAR may be suffering from a similar circumstance David Ragan made a good point….if hard to drive cars were the measure of excellence….then legend cars should be the number one auto sport in america Here’s the deal The short tracks havent been changed...they’re fine What has changed….are the terrible intermediate tracks We all know the 1.5 mile races are terrible If you have forgotten watch one YouTUbe They are lap turning single groove races The only way that you enjoyed one of those races last year was dependent on your fantasy team If you played the right driver….then you like the race If you did not….you turned it off NASCAR is only messing with the intermediate tracks We all know they are a disaster...these stupid things were built during the NASCAR bubble years…. Now nascar is stuck with them So they turned them into iroc to mix it up I know it’s another gimmick….but what else can you do They’re stuck in a contract with the tracks….and they’ll probably never be able to leave after that anyway You can go the max horsepower….low downforce route but you’ll likley end up with three cars on the lead lap at the end Which is fine If cost were not an issue…. I would run track dependent setups...but that’s impossible Trucks, xfinity, cup, arca, and KN…..they don’t have to be the same We can have different rules that present different racing Would you be opposed to class racing at an oval….(i’m looking at you pocono because you’ve got to do something) What about timed races - 3 hours of Pocono Dirt racing A legitimate version of heat racing - not the crap Xfinity tried two years ago I know that I am the leader of the NASCAR Armageddon club And as president and customer….I am the first to let you know that NASCAR has ruined everything….but I think NASCAR is on to something here On the podcast last year….I was pretty hyped for the all star race and the michigan xfinity race NASCAR needs stars They are stuck with Harvick, Busch, and Truex They’re not stars….millennials and Gen Z do not like these Boomers They’re boring, corporate schills We need new winners Bubba Wallace could not be passed yesterday Dibenedetto was battling for the lead We now have 25 legitimate contenders 25 brands One will stick Nascar could not grab eyeballs with the big 3 Some one one reddit made a great point…..Danica retired two early…..she could win in this package….he brand would be huge…..and NASCAR would explode…..JR would have won more too THis will sound chauvinist --- but this package opens the sport up to women And thus opens the sport up to half of the population THat sounds horrible….but mostly only chauvinist listen to this podcasts, so I do not need to worry Women do not have a legitimate pro sport in america WNBA is subsidized by the NBA Maybe ladies golf is okay….and maybe womens tennis….but tennis is less balanced than nascar And there are few spots for players Dave Smith hates this becuase it opens the door for Logan Paul to jump in the car...and I know that sounds like a joke…..but it isn’t THat will happen soon That’s exactly what the YouTubers do…..maybe NASCAR will be smart and create an Pro-Am division That’s not a terrble idea...if a driver does well ...then let them run in CUp if they have the cash Think about the famous celebrity race car drivers…..Patrick Dempsey….Paul Newman...we’re talking about cool, respectable men…..Steve Mcqueen...THESE ARE MEN’s MEN….Caitlyn Jenner…..oh nevermind….she’s such a great driver that she ran someone over and killed them Top 5 Celeberities that might just in a cup car 1. Logan Paul 2. Caitlyn Jenner 3. Soldier Boy 4. Donald Trump Jr. 5. Lil Tay “youngest flexer of the century” Let’s look at it from a DFS perspective I did not see the data for the practice laps in the draft But my eyeballs say that the cars were running at the same speed The front car did not slowly distance himself from the others There was a gap, but it was constant - the gap did not increase Fast laps are not completely dead….but they do not seem to be a big factor….While the lead car is hard to pass….and has clean air One of the other 39 cars…..may dip behind a car….suck up to that car….and in avoiding air resistance….run a tenth or two faster on any given lap On the single car runs….everyone had the same speed according to the data that I viewed Some teams will figure some things out….and may have a slight speed edge….but they might not….this package will be different at each 1.5 mile track Player pools will expand….25 drivers can be winners Good driver can earn terrible finishes just like plate racing The bad news is that you have to learn a new strategy But that’s also an opportunity….every DFS player is starting over The DFS players that figure it out first will make a lot of money Should we start chasing place differential and avoid the possibility of negative place differential points Should we severely downgrade fast lap points in our roster build process Quick note...i said atlanta was not using this package in the atlant podcast…. I was wrong….they are using the package...but not all of it….they are not using the ducts...but will have the Horsepower reduction That’s a new strategy Saving tires meant everything at Atalnta...Harvick committed to the bottom wasn’t the fast early….but on a long run he was the best Drivers could make move on the faster groove up top….but the extra force...shreded tires Now the top line and the bottom line are the same speed with the restricotr plate. The top wont eat tires anymore than the bottom Is Harvick’s edge gone? I would say yes. The edge is gone at every intermediate track Should we expect big one wrecks Will drivers hang back and just stay on the lead lap similar to what we see at plate races Will there be mad dashes for stage points at the end of stage like we have seen at plate races Why risk a wreck ging for stage points when a win is possible if you’re alive at the end Will stage points even matter We could easily get 16 winners this season 3 different plate winners 1 road winner 4 short track winners in the 7 races 8…. +1.5 track winners in the 14 races That’s 16 If you watched the 3rd run on thrusday night….Brad Keselowski was blocking like it was the last laps at Talladega He was daring people to try him….no one one would….because it’s a test….you can’t risk the equipment….It was basically a jerk, bully move by Brad…… As always….Brad tries to be the tough guy...he tries to be the intimidator…..but then the real bully steps on to the yard…..Kesleowksi tried to block Kyle Busch…..and Kyle Busch did not lift…..Keselowski chickened out and slid up the track Busch passed him and sailed off In a real race….you may get a way with blocking cars that have runs early in the race….In the last 10 laps at an intermediate track… a race where the amount of blocks has resulted in high levels of frustration… The leader will get dumped at the end That wreck at the front could take out the whole field There could be a lot of wrecked race cars each week ...and that’s a lot of money Imagine if teams had to run at Daytona 20 times a year….they would be bankrupt in one season Maybe you had a DFS edge...and you’re about to lose it You sound like Kyle Busch We just hit the reset button. It’s a new season. You’ve got to start from square one and get back to work You can complain….and make excuses….or quit Or realize this is an opportunity….there has to be a way to figure out what’s going to happen I know I sound like schill They got to him….what does russia have on race4theprize You don’t even want to know I’m not a purist….I want excitement and variety I love hoping on iracing and running plate races in the trucks You can tandem draft ...or run with the two packs You never know what will happen other than’s fun…..being on a level playing field is fun But there is a different set of skills that work Kyle busch and his fans only appreciate corner speed Pack racing and tandem racing is skill Watch the Earnhardt sr iroc races on youtube Close your eyes …. You’re runing third at Charlotte in the coca cola 600 You are half a second behind the leader with two laps left…..the race is over He has to wreck for you to win….is that how you want to win? There is nothing that you can do….there isn’t a skill that you can activate Imagine we’re in the plate package You can close that gap….but you need to know when to make your move Who will work with you and who wont Who can you take three wide Who can you bully aggressively and who can’t you trust Will you run wreckers or checkers If you get a run on the leader...will your lift or will you dump him Can you set up the leaders This is why plate racing on iracing is great….the last laps are a blast ...especially when you get to the higher levels where people cant afford the negative rating for wrecks Kyle Larson will likely quit...and other might follow And that’s okay…..There are a ton of racing opportunities in america…..late models….dirt….modified….indy car….sports cars With the plates and the future of OEMs or specs Costs will drop...this opens the door to new teams We might see DFS twitter fave Josh Parker get a shot If you lower the entry cost...we could return to the days of 50 cars showing up at the track to qualify TV ratings will go up The casual observer will be entertain Just ask yourself...will your wife watch it Mine won’t watch a whole race….but she’ll watch some of this… and that’s a start But you’re turning your back on the original fans NASCAR already did that….it happened years ago - north wilkesboro….the rock….. Opening Northern tracks...the list goes on...everyone has a reason to hate NASCAR….but yet they still watch I doubt this will be the last straw….the purist still have short tracks THe NFL is a pass happy league….it used to be about legendary running backs and big hits….you complain…..but you still watch Major league baseball…. Was all about small ball on terrible astro turf fields in the 80s….then it was the chicks dig the long ball era….then it was back to pitching…..then it was sabermetrics…..then it was about high tech advanced statistics Golf is doing the same thing….it’s one step away from Battle bots golf Recap the DFS issues...and forget the commentary Anyone can win or earn a top 10….so the player pool expands More of a challenge….mass entry guys may have an edge, but they will win less If I enter 150 times and cover the 10-12 drivers...then I will likely win If I enter 150 times, but have to cover 25 drivers….it’s not likely that I will win….and I will have more dead lineups I do not recall a big mass entry player winning the daytona 500 or the summer race Or the dega races I know Doc won the clash twice….but that’s a small player pool I would not be surprised to see the Mass Entry guts play it safe I would expect them to manage their bankroll and treat this like a plate race At the very least….early in the season….I can’t imagine why people would max out It’s just not a sharp move Too risky If that happens...then this package has opened the door to the smaller players That’s a good thing I could be wrong….I dont listen to Docs podcast or Steve’s….i have nothing against them….I’ll listen to Steve’s morning show from time to time…. I’m almost embarssed to say this...but I miss Seige...I may be in the minority….but I liked him….i thought the two of them worked really well together….back to the point…. I am sure that steve and doc will be forthright about their entry plans...they’ll let their listeners know their apporach….They might go 150 at Atlanta…..but after that…. I bet their bankroll management instincts kick in We’re not sure about fast laps….we’ll have to see the Las Vegas practice in March...but I am leaning towards finishing position and place differential being more significant If we downgrade fast laps….then laps led become more significant...the DK game becomes similar to the fan duel game Drivers like Kyle larson that can bank fast laps but do not often lead laps will be downgraded Late race pit stops could change everything….I don’t even know where to begin with green flag pit cycling We did not see teams work together...but that wasn’t possible because each team only had one driver Landon Cassill….in a star com car….in non drafting practice…..was only 3 tenths slower than the leader You put him in the draft he should hang on to the lead lap…..if not… most...he’s loses a lap...but with the amount of cautions that sure to happen…..and the diminished impact of tire wear...wave around could mean everyone in the field is on the lead lap at the end of an intermediate track race If you have a late race restart with 30 cars on the lead lap at vegas….then you might as well blow up the field….there is no way that the race does not devolve into a wreck fest The optimal lineup may be a double punt lineup with money on the table.

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